Wednesday, August 08, 2007


Jonathan Papelbon is a real good pitcher (career WHIP/Kp9 of 0.98/10.58 in minors and 1.08/9.71 in majors). But how much does it really help you when he only pitches the ninth inning with a 1-3 run lead and hardly ever on back to back days?

Well considering only Suzuki, Guerrero, Rodriguez, Byrnes, Ordonez, Pujols, Wright, Sizemore, Cabrera, Ramirez, Reyes , Martinez, Utley, Roberts, Granderson, Cabrera, Martin, Duncan, Jeter, Lee, Peralta, Rollins, Holliday, Fielder, Gonzalez, Rowand, Penny, Pena, Haren, Ortiz, Renteria, Mauer, Posada, Thome, Polanco, Ramirez, Rios, Bonds, Beltran, Figgins, Hart, Lee, Young, Sheffield, Francoeur, Morneau, Willingham, Johnson, Buehrle, Howard, Hunter, Soriano, Hawpe, Upton, Kent, Peavy, Youkilis, Berkman, Hudson, Konerko, Beltre, Dunn, Hill, Crawford, Guillen, Jones, Sabathia, Zambrano, Uggla, Bedard, Lackey, Santana, Escobar, Griffey Jr., Cameron, Lowell, Young, Braun, Helton, Webb, Crisp, Young, DeJesus, Pedroia, Young, Carmona, Matthews Jr., Pence, Hardy , Vazquez, Cuddyer, Ramirez, Teixeira, Swisher, Burrell, Church, Furcal, Zimmerman, Hudson, Tulowitzki, Harang, Jones, Kearns, Harris, Hamels, Kotchman, Snyder, Sanchez, Matsui, Bay, Beckett, Francis, Guillen, Putz, DeRosa, Teahen, Markakis, Cano, Garko, Oswalt, Drew, Stewart, Victorino, Wells, Nady, Betancourt, Inge, McCann, Phillips, Delgado, Wang, Matsuzaka, Guthrie, Isringhausen, Maine, Smoltz, Varitek, Johjima, Lofton, Ellis, Belliard, Halladay, Willits, Winn, Hafner, Iguchi, Pena, Cook, Ethier, Gordon, LaRoche, Abreu, Giles, Jenks, Wagner, Young, Atkins, Jenkins, Meche, Okajima, Kinsler, Blanton, Cust, Verlander, Greene, Millar, Gonzalez, Giles, Garciaparra, Feliz, Theriot, Hatteberg, Glaus, Gorzelanny, Lilly, Saito, Taveras, Wainwright, Bannister, Hall, Sheets, Blake, Gaudin, Davis, Lowe, Hernandez, Lopez, Rodriguez, Bard, Bartlett, Bautista, Damon, Garland, Hamilton, Lopez, Nathan, Wilson, Capps, Lamb, Loretta, Hernandez, Franklin, Hernandez, Ibanez, Marcum, Rolen, Pena, Harris, Gonzalez, Iwamura, Pettitte, Pierzynski, Lyon, Molina, Guzman, James, Easley, Roberts, Weathers, Encarnacio, Rodriguez, Thomas, Laird, Bell, Snell, Accardo, Barfield, Loney, Shields, Valverde, Vidro, Washburn, Matsui, Castillo, Scott, Batista, Byrd, Cabrera, Corpas, Diaz, Grudzielanic, Guerrier, Mora, Napoli, Tejada, Lowry, Perez, Vizquel, Neshek, Betancourt, Hill, Mackowiak, Sexson, Green, Kazmir, Sosa, Buck, Hoffman, Wakefield, Boone, Schneider, Wilkerson, Billingsley, Cordero, Floyd, Jackson, Janssen, Patterson, Ruiz, Tracy, Johnson, German, Cordero, Benoit, Bonderman, Broxton, Estrada, Kubel, and Lugo have more Win Shares than him, I'd say not all that valuable actually.

Don't listen to me though, just read this avalanche of common sense.

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Anonymous Pete said...

That BP article makes tons of sense, but it's going to be hard to convince the Joe Morgan's of the world to give up the idea that getting 3 outs in the 9th is completely different and far more challenging than 3 outs in any other inning, even if it's bases empty.

9:39 AM  
Blogger sabesin2001 said...

i do hope within 10 years the win expectancy % starts getting a lot more play by the media. i think it would go a long way towards showing what the most important events were in the game. i also like that bp idea of there being multiple saves per game.

2:03 PM  
Anonymous Pete said...

I think it might almost be easier to get rid of the "save" completely and call this new stat something else, because it might help get rid of some of those preconceived notions of what a "save" is.

Maybe we could call it a "hold"?

9:08 AM  
Blogger ben said...

This comment has been removed by the author.

10:24 AM  
Blogger ben said...

also, maybe the Red Sox have evidence that Paps would pitch a lot worse if he didn't get on in the ninth. While I agree that using your relief aces situationally is smarter than just assigning them an inning, a lot of pitchers may conceptualize it differently. And I suspect pitching requires more concentration to be successful since they have more control over the outcome than the hitter (who has like a second to adjust his swing). Since Papelbot doesn't seem like the smartest kid ever either, he may need the ninth to do his thing.

10:32 AM  

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