Friday, November 06, 2009

Monetary Realignment

As the only major American sport to fully embrace the free market (the largely ineffective luxury tax aside), a frequent discussion topic regarding MLB is payroll disparity. Both between the high and the low (think Red Sox/Mets vs. Pirates/Marlins) and the high and the absurdly high (Yankees vs. Everyone Else). While a salary cap is the ultimate solution, there is no sign that Selig would embrace such a measure; nor that there are even many owners behind it. The Yankees give enough in revenue sharing to cover the bills of the low-market teams; the high markets get the salary flexibility to generally compete against New York; and there is far too much interest in short-term TV/revenue gains to make MLB worry about the systemic damage near-zero competitiveness will do to 1/3+ of its franchises over time.

So here's another avenue I pursued as a weekday diversion. What if we realigned MLB based partly on money? First, a look at the numbers:

Avg Team Payroll, last twelve years (2009-1998, date of last MLB expansion)
  1. NYC Yankees $151,877,338.67
  2. BOS Red Sox $107,635,951.92
  3. NYC Mets $100,632,173.50
  4. LA Dodgers $93,413,092.08
  5. ATL Braves $88,513,588.33
  6. CHI Cubs $84,316,535.75
  7. SEA Mariners $81,486,898.17
  8. LA Angels $81,007,832.50
  9. STL Cardinals $77,536,459.17
  10. TEX Rangers $73,998,363.33
  11. SF Giants $73,004,887.67
  12. HOU Astros $72,274,090.17
  13. PHI Phillies $71,805,386.50
  14. BLT Orioles $71,582,849.17
  15. CHI White Sox $69,609,277.67
  16. AZ Diamondbacks $69,236,991.33
  17. DET Tigers $68,282,048.00
  18. CLE Indians $65,302,489.83
  19. TOR Blue Jays $64,658,291.42
  20. CO Rockies $59,318,811.50
  21. CIN Reds $53,961,987.08
  22. SD Padres $52,990,266.83
  23. MIL Brewers $50,342,928.67
  24. OAK Athletics $47,262,457.58
  25. MN Twins $45,407,544.83
  26. KC Royals $43,619,569.42
  27. WSH Nationals $40,843,305.50
  28. PIT Pirates $39,368,957.42
  29. TB Rays $38,703,228.50
  30. FL Marlins $33,454,107.75
Avg Payroll, last 6 years (2009-2004)
  1. NYC Yankees $197,888,942.83
  2. BOS Red Sox $128,177,616.17
  3. NYC Mets $116,908,463.33
  4. LA Angels $107,318,109.17
  5. CHI Cubs $104,140,432.83
  6. LA Dodgers $100,307,640.00
  7. SEA Mariners $96,710,247.00
  8. PHI Phillies $96,286,106.50
  9. CHI White Sox $94,845,138.67
  10. ATL Braves $92,196,560.00
  11. DET Tigers $91,081,262.67
  12. STL Cardinals $88,623,819.67
  13. HOU Astros $87,402,221.83
  14. SF Giants $85,284,181.83
  15. TOR Blue Jays $71,321,083.33
  16. BLT Orioles $70,995,994.67
  17. CIN Reds $64,333,087.83
  18. AZ Diamondbacks $63,930,177.67
  19. TEX Rangers $63,889,646.33
  20. MN Twins $61,139,756.33
  21. OAK Athletics $61,123,095.67
  22. SD Padres $60,682,365.00
  23. MIL Brewers $59,523,027.83
  24. CLE Indians $59,012,633.17
  25. CO Rockies $58,852,277.83
  26. KC Royals $54,610,888.83
  27. WSH Nationals $50,926,416.67
  28. PIT Pirates $42,166,549.17
  29. TB Rays $37,651,805.33
  30. FL Marlins $34,450,479.33
*Keep in mind the Nationals moved in 2005 from Montreal to DC.
* Payroll Source: USA Today

I examined both the 12- and 6-year period to check if any team(s) jumped up or down the list more recently. So, we can pretty clearly see where most of our 30 teams stand. There's still 4 in the middle that I'll get to momentarily. For now we have...

Pulled Up By Their Bootstraps: Yankees, Red Sox, Mets, Angels, Cubs, Dodgers, Mariners, Phillies, White Sox, Braves, Cardinals, Astros, Giants

Too Lazy To "Better" Themselves: Marlins, Rays, Pirates, Nats, Royals, Rockies, Indians, Brewers, Padres, Athletics, Twins, Diamondbacks, Reds

This leaves 4 teams that could sort of go either way: the Blue Jays, Orioles, Rangers and Tigers. The Tigers have started spending a lot more money recently, so I'm inclined to promote them to the big show. While the Rangers have recently lowered their payroll some, this is mostly due to their owner's recent financial struggles; and considering their history and his habit of spending, I'm putting them up too. So that means the Blue Jays and Orioles join the unwashed masses.

This leaves 15 teams in each conference, already an improvement on the currently lopsided AL/NL. I personally think the "3 division winners + 1 wild card" system is a bit sloppy on MLB's part, so let's try to refine that too. I'll put forward two alignment proposals: a 2-division per league method and a 4-division per league method. Please note that both suggestions involve expansion, but since it's been over 10 years and MLB's had big financial gains in recent years, baseball is ready for some more franchises!

Two Divisions per League Realignment:

When it comes to this alignment, I tried to preserve two notions. First, I didn't want to lump direct regional rivals together, mostly for scheduling reasons as a 2-division league unevenly tilts towards the eastern part of the country somewhat if based on region. Second, since we aren't lumping teams together based on distance, I was able to preserve most of the "classic" local rivalries; and with only one or two exceptions NL and AL teams stayed together. Last, to balance it out let's add two new teams; please welcome the New Jersey Trumps and the Portland Proles (locations based on geography/revenue estimate).

The Haves League

The Adam Smith Division
NYC Yankees
BOS Red Sox
LA Angels
DET Tigers
CHI White Sox
TEX Rangers
SEA Mariners
**NJ Trumps

The Herbert Hoover Division
NYC Mets
PHI Phillies
LA Dodgers
SF Giants
CHI Cubs
HOU Astros
ATL Braves
STL Cardinals


The Have-Nots League

The Karl Marx Division
CLE Indians
BLT Orioles
MN Twins
TOR Blue Jays
KC Royals
TB Rays
WSH Nationals
PIT Pirates

The FDR Division
CIN Reds
AZ Diamondbacks
SD Padres
MIL Brewers
CO Rockies
FL Marlins
OAK Athletics
**Portland Proles

Thus baseball can finally have a balanced schedule. It would be 14 games against every division rival (98 games) and 8 games against every non-division league opponent (64), and we'll do away with the interleague nonsense (which is even more useless if we realign based on payroll since all the major cities now share the same league). Interleague Exhibitions are for spring training in my opinion.

For the playoffs, we can either have the top 2 teams from each division go to the playoffs, or the division winners + 2 wild cards (even if the WCs come from the same division). With a 32-team league, I'd even explore sending 6 teams to the playoffs and give the division winners first round byes.


Four Divisions per League Realignment:

With this alignment, I much more tightly grouped it by region; I preserved most of the classical rivalries but the old AL/NL distinction fades away. This alignment emphasizes divisional play the most, and is definitely inspired by the NFL's setup. Under this alignment scheme we add 2 teams, but in different cities to balance the divisional geography/revenue potential. Here we bring in the Mexico City Aztecs and the Indianapolis Mannings to our baseball family.

The Haves League

The Citibank Division (HL East)
NYC Yankees
NYC Mets
BOS Red Sox
PHI Phillies

The Ford Division (HL Central)
CHI White Sox
CHI Cubs
DET Tigers
STL Cardinals

The Haliburton Division (HL South)
TEX Rangers
HOU Astros
ATL Braves
**Mexico City Aztecs

The Microsoft Division (HL West)
LA Dodgers
LA Angels
SF Giants
SEA Mariners


The Have-Nots League

The Joe the Plumber Division (HN East)
TOR Blue Jays
CLE Indians
CIN Reds
PIT Pirates

The Union Division (HN Central)
MN Twins
MIL Brewers
KC Royals
**Indianapolis Mannings

The Wire Division (HN South)
BLT Orioles
WSH Nationals
TB Rays
FL Marlins

The Cesar Chavez Division (HN West)
SD Padres
OAK Athletics
AZ Diamondbacks
CO Rockies

Using this setup we can still use a balanced schedule that is superior to the current one. Let's say 22 games against every division rival (66 games), and 8 games against the other 12 league opponents (96 games). That isn't too many more division games than MLB already has, and once again the interleague monkey wrench isn't necessary. This definitely balkanizes the league somewhat with so many inter-city divisional rivalries, but I feel that strong local rivalries are one of baseball's greatest strengths; especially since MLB's season is so long.

For the playoffs, you can just simply have the 4 division winners go to FOXtober. If you wanted to expand the playoffs with the new 32-team league, again, just add 2 WCs and the top two division winners get byes.

---------

Both setups have their charms, I think I might slightly skew towards endorsing the 4-division format method, because I could see lots of those divisions being really tight and exciting year-long races; while a 2-division format is just a little more impersonal (although probably more balanced schedule-wise).

Now, whichever alignment we "use," there are two other points to examine. We'd need a provision where if a team starts spending or not-spending money over a few years (say there's an ownership change), then the league is allowed promote the biggest spender and demote the new cheapskate. Secondly, as far as the World Series is concerned, we'll inevitably end up with a big market team facing a small market team. Is this fair?

Well for one, this is somewhat already the case, half of the World Series matchups the past decade pitted a big-market team against a low-budget one (2008, 2007, 2006, 2003, 2001). Furthermore, with its current insistence on avoiding the DH, the NL has already essentially become the "inferior" league over the past 15-20 years, as first the better hitters and then the balance of the better pitchers have been transported to the American League. Plus with either realignment since there's no interleague, which teams are truly superior is more hidden as there are no matchups during the season to judge by. So will anyone really notice much of a functional difference?

There are some other benefits as well. It ingrains the common storyline of "underdog vs. favorite," that runs rampant through the American sports landscape. Plus, since a 7-game series is inherently more random than a 162-game season, the low-money team is going to win a disproportionate share of championships. This not only helps boost the perception/illusion of baseball parity in the minds of the fans/media (as the MLB's current playoff system already does), but by giving this "50-50" chance of winning a title to the low-market teams, the Have-Not league will become more competitive relative to itself, much more so than in today's game. With teams like the Pirates only being outspent by $20-40 million instead of $100-150 million, suddenly every team has a greater chance of divisional competitiveness and championship dreams. Perception of opportunity leads to hope, hope leads to ticket sales.

As for whichever unfortunate SOBs get stuck in the same division as the Yankees, those teams are already used to trying to keep up with their lavish rival, and will still be playing on a more equal footing than teams with a fraction of the payroll. Then again ... we could always just create a salary cap/floor that floats as a percentage of league revenues, but that'd be toooooooo easy...

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2 Comments:

Blogger John said...

so i do like both ideas of realignment, both for parity and especially for the playoff implications (no wild cards and/or first round byes for division winners). and yeah it would definitely be easier to make divisions if mlb expanded again.

the problem is the implications for how teams would act, ie there would be more reason to spend less and get realigned to an easier division. i think i'd make those determinations based on a third party's assessment of market size as opposed to team salary or revenues.

10:31 PM  
Blogger Ben said...

when I set up the divisions I wasn't consciously assigning teams based on money, at least not intentionally; but more on region (and more of an AL/NL split in the 2-division league). But yeah, there'd definitely be the possibility of gamesmanship with the Torontoes/Texases mid-high-teams trying to stay in the lower league. Maybe ancillary benefits (full stadium for the Yankee/Red Sox games?) would dissuade that behavior, meh. I like the idea of parceling out by market size btw.

8:17 AM  

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