Regression to the Mean Is the Number One Thing

Hey, remember after the first few weeks or month of the season, where you couldn't blow your nose on the Internet without finding an article about how offense was down in MLB this year? That all the steroid scrutiny and controversy was resulting in hitters coming back to earth? Does anyone want to know why we aren't seeing those articles anymore?

Because offense is almost back to its 2006 level!

Runs/game in 2006 .... 4.85
Runs/game in 2007 .... 4.70

And how about team batting stats?

AVG/OBP/SLG in 2006 .... .269 / .336 / .423 / .768
AVG/OBP/SLG in 2007 .... .264 / .332 / .415 / .748

Home Run numbers are a little down from last year, but not by much (roughly, 0.13 HRs a game), but I have a feeling those may float back up by the end of the year, as pitching staffs thin and more marginal prospects get called up to fill roster space.

Last Year's One Run Anomalies

Statistics suggest that as a rule, over the course of the season teams will go .500 in games decided by one run. Every year however there are some teams that (either due to luck or perhaps an absurdly bad/good bullpen) tend to dramatically overperform or underperform in that category. For example, the Washington Nationals in their first year led their division for almost half a season, and this was largely due to a ridiculously fortunate record in one-run games. As the season progressed, their numbers regressed to the mean (ending at 30-31 in 1-R games) and they returned to the bottom of the division.

So, here are teams that last year in 2006 had a record well above or below .500 in one-run situations. While not a guarantee, keep an eye on them because they may very well win more or less if their 2007 1-R outcomes come back to earth.

Overperformers:

Toronto 20-10 (0.667)
Boston 29-20 (0.592)
Minnesota 20-11 (0.645)
Oakland 32-22 (0.593)
NY Mets 31-16 (0.66)

Underperformers:

Cleveland 18-26 (0.409)
Kanasa City 14-24 (0.368)
Texas 17-26 (0.395)
Atlanta 19-33 (0.365)

Where these results might be felt the most this season is in the NL East. Both the Braves and the Mets had two of the biggest 1-R disparities last season. If both come back to the mean this season, and considering the Phillies were right around 0.500 last year, we may have quite the divisional race on our hands. The 1-R factor may also come into play in the AL wild card race this season, where many potential playoff teams had aberrational 1-R records.

Ben's Preseason Predictions

Somehow I feel like they aren't much different from last year, but I'd have to check.

AL East

1. Boston Red Sox - this is it. If this team doesn't unseat the Yankees, I think the Braves streak is in serious jeopardy. If Pineiro can serviceabley close, the bullpen will be a lot more solid than the deluge of criticism suggests.
2. NY Yankees - Unfortunately their ability to assemble any lineup they want hides most of their pitching woes. Cano and Wang come back to earth.
3. Toronto Blue Jays - keep tryin' J.P. Ricciardi. Very close to wild-card range here, maybe give them another year of tweaking.
4. Tampa Bay Devil Rays - contraction please.
5. Baltimore Orioles - when you sign Traschel to replace Benson, you've got plenty of problems.

AL Central

1. Cleveland Indians - I'm just going to keep picking them until their run differential pans out the way it should. Only Foulke is able to screw over two teams in a matter of months.
2. Chicago White Sox - If Konerko/Dye/Thome didn't exist this team is a laughing-stock.
3. Detroit Tigers - Please let Zumaya close, you'll pick up wins!
4. Minnesota Twins - Pass a collection plate every game to raise money for Santana's extension.
5. Kansas City Royals - I love the '80s!

AL West

1. Oakland - Harden and Haren and pray for .... no elbow catastrophes?
2. Anaheim Angels - man that's a bad lineup with a chewy Guerrero center.
3. Texas - I feel like they've missed their opportunity to take it to the next level with their current core. If Gagne's close to who he was, they could have an interesting season.
4. Seattle - Let's hope year two of his reign is kinder to King Felix.

NL East

1. Atlanta - their lineup is competitive with the Mets despite half the press, and their pitching is probably deeper.
2. NY Mets - Pedro's going to be a reliever in a year or two.
3. Philadelphia Phillies - Close but perennially short.
4. Florida Marlins - They'll be breathing heat down the rest of the division's neck all year.
5. Washington Nationals - cherry trees?

NL Central

1. St. Louis Cardinals - book it.
2. Chicago Cubs - that's a lot of money they spent to possibly miss the playoffs.
3. Milaukee Brewers - if Sheets is finally healthy.
4. Houston Astros - Losing Pettite and possibly Clemens in one offseason is going to hurt.
5. Cincinnati Reds - I actually forgot them when I first did my list, I guess that sums it up.
6. Pittsburgh Pirates - whoa, Jason Bay's already 28.

NL West

1. Los Angeles Dodgers - in the largest pitching-friendly division, they have the most of it.
2. San Diego Padres - if only their lineup was a little deeper.
3. Arizona Diamondbacks - if this team keeps Webb, they could be somebody in a couple years
4. San Francisco Giants - they should've been rebuilding 3 years ago.
5. Colorado Rockies - sigh.

Should the Red Sox really trade Manny Ramirez?

SEASON G AB R H 2B HR RBI AVG OBP SLG OPS

1999 Cle 147 522 131 174 34 44 165 .333 .442 .663 1.105
2000 Cle 118 439 92 154 34 38 122 .351 .457 .697 1.154
2001 Bos 142 529 93 162 33 41 125 .306 .405 .609 1.014
2002 Bos 120 436 84 152 31 33 107 .349 .450 .647 1.097
2003 Bos 154 569 117 185 36 37 104 .325 .427 .587 1.014
2004 Bos 152 568 108 175 44 43 130 .308 .397 .613 1.010
2005 Bos 152 554 112 162 30 45 144 .292 .388 .594 .982
2006 Bos 130 449 79 144 27 35 102 .321 .439 .619 1.058

'nuff said.

Possible Red Sox offseason moves, GO!

John:
What would you guys think of J. D. Drew on the Red Sox? Part of me thinks the intense atmosphere might help him to get motivated (either that or destroy him). He's aloof, but not in a 100% aloof way like Manny, more like in a Nomar way where things affect him. I wouldn't even consider it, aside from the fact that when playing he'd immediately make our lineup top of the notch again and play a superb right field. Seeing him on the Braves, I'm fully convinced he has every one of Beltran's skills and is a better overall player, when he plays.

And what about Matsuzaka? I'm all for adding quality to the rotation but man, is it going to cost us. I'd probably prefer Zito or Schmidt. With Zito, at least we know he hardly ever misses a start.

And finally, thumbs up or thumbs down on Lugo over A-Gone for next year’s shortstop?


Ben:
Here are the last 3 years of Nixonmania and Drew .

Drew's actually had more ABs, which obviously isn't a perfect measure of health, but it seems like they both miss chunks of time. Drew is two years younger and .145 OPS points better. I don't see any other offensive upgrade option available. He has a bad reputation, but if he plays well when he plays it should be ok. Can the Red Sox afford $15 million a year though? Especially if these absurd reports about the Matsuzaka bidding are true? I guess we're anticipating ditching Manny and Schilling in a year or two.

I love Nixon, but his power dropoff is pretty frightening.

Lugo. If you want to win in the AL, you need offense at every position. Punch it.

I'd take Zito over Matsuzaka any day, you could possibly sign Zito and Schmidt for the amount it'll cost Matsuzaka.


John:
I just assumed Nixon was gone whether we like it or not. It seems like Drew is the only reasonable replacement to play the outfield. I don't know what to think about what we can afford. I wonder why we wouldn't go bid crazy on Zito and Schmidt instead?


Pete:
I feel like in a few years, we're all going to be looking back on the contracts from this year and last year like we look at the Manny, A-Rod, Jeter, etc. deals now. Aramis Ramirez gets 5 yrs/73M? Damn, son! That said, if we're serious about winning in the AL East, dem's the breaks, I'm afraid.

I would not be unhappy with Drew in right, but sorta nervous about the situation. But I agree, not a lot of better options available unless the sox come up with some off-the-wall trade. I like it especially because most people are saying the next "big bat" is one Carlos Lee, but their 3 year average OPS isn't pretty: Lee .865, Drew .947. Assuming Lee gets something approaching Ramirez money, and we can get Drew for less, I like it even more. They have similar AB/HR rates (18 for Lee, 19 for Drew), but the thing that worries me, as you guys are alluding to, is this: in the last 3 years, Drew has 1264 AB, Lee 1833. So we gotta figure out how to keep him on the damn field. But yeah, I guess I like it.

Matsuzaka - yeah, freaking expensive, but we know where Zito & Schmidt's numbers are gonna go after the next year or two (particularly Schmidt, moving from the NL to AL, and from Pac-Bell to Fenway). I guess Matsuzaka is more of an unknown, but I don't think his numbers will drop off like those other guys, so he could be a better long-term investment (particularly if you just consider his CONTRACT money, which would probably actually be less than Zito money - I forget where I read that, but at least one "expert" (...) was saying that...). I think the interesting thing with him is that the posting fee wouldn't count against the salary cap, so it's pretty much just a one-time investment, and it doesn't mess up our ability to spend money on other players, other than the fact that John Henry has to shell out more dough (it doesn't affect our long-term plans regarding the cap). I just have no idea what to make of the scouting on him - he works up in the strike zone so much and looks like he hangs a lot of breaking stuff. If people who know more than me think he'll be good, then I guess I like it, but...

Lugo... meh. Personally I'd love to bring A-Gon back for another year or two (but I guess he won't do a 1 year deal, so that's out anyway), because I'll take .250 out of the 9 hitter. And honestly, Lugo probably would be a bottom of the order guy anyway (OBP .348, OPS .753 over last 3 years). But this is just me being selfish because I love watching the guy play. If we've got the dough, let's tie it on.


Ben:
Having Wily Mo as a backup RF makes Drew's penchant for not playing more palatable for me. Also this year MLB is awash in cash, so it's basically impossible to figure out what a reasonable contract is these days. If A-Rod was a FA now instead of a few years ago I wouldn't have been surprised to see him get $30 million per.


Ben:
Sox as Evil Empire

John:
Blah blah blah, if the Red Sox were in a different division, they wouldn't have nearly the same payroll. It's like if one country nuked another and the first one nuked back, would everyone blame the second country for not being restrained??

Maybe he should write about Toronto spending too much money as well. Clearly the blue jays should wait until they have 10 top prospects all mature at the same time, then will they deserve to be contenders?


Ben:
That writer is generally incompetent I've found. He just pops up all the time in my fantasy sports main page.

But, while the Red Sox would probably spend less if they were in another division, they'd still have the wherewithal to bully many of the other teams if it came to a bidding war.

I think the bigger issue is that there are now quite a few "$100 mill" franchises, Texas, Anaheim, Chicago (2), NY (2), Seattle, Boston, Philly, Dodgers, etc. But after that there is a huge dropoff in what other teams can spend. I think the talk about MLB parity is a partly illusory, but I don't think I'll be able to write an article on that until Thanksgiving or winter break.


John:
I disagree. The Red Sox never bullied a team before the Yankees became an empire. Manny was pretty much the first big FA signing in Boston. It was mostly because no one wanted to come play in Boston, but it still led to them not being able to sign anyone. And then Manny was only signed in retaliation for Mussina. They bullied for Foulke because they needed someone like Rivera to beat the Yankees and I doubt they would make a move like that again in the near future. I just don't see why they would keep profits to a minimum if they didn't have to have a high payroll to be competitive. They already have the fan base, wouldn't it make sense to keep the payroll down? The Yankees are way below their revenue, but they're forcing other teams to use every penny to keep up.

I'd like to see that article about how parity is an illusion.


Ben:
Well, it's all relative. Team payrolls didn't spiral out of control (and the subsequent large gap in the rich and poor) until relatively recently, as the free agency system matured and MLB began taking in drastically more revenue. I agree with you that payrolls wouldn't be as high if the Yankees weren't constantly cracking a whip over the AL. But even if the Yankees weren't making a mockery of the MLB's salary structure, I'm pretty sure the Red Sox would still be right at the crest of the luxury tax threshold, even if that threshold was lower. And considering 2/3 of the teams in the league can't come _close_ to that level of salary, they're bullying powers surpass all but probably the NY squads. The Red Sox like to cry pauper, but they're one of the biggest power players in the league.

Specific examples that I'd argue is evidence of them able to make deals simply because the other team can't keep up on the same financial level, not just due to the Yankees:
Matzuaska - They obliterated all the other bids, which suggests to me the Sox have a lot more money to play with than they let on.
Millar
Beckett
Renteria
Damon
Foulke (you mentioned that one already)
A-Rod (not so much due to Texas, but the way the Sox tried to buy off the player's union)

I actually wouldn't use the Manny deal as an example because the Indians also offered him a ton of cash. My memory's not as a good as yours, so there might be other examples. I think that's enough to show that a case at least can be made, even if it isn't 100% persuasive.


John:
Agreed. I need an editor to put this email chain in blog form.

National League predictions.

I don't really have the time I thought I did, so these predictions are going to be short and sweet. If people thought there were a lot of potential contenders in the American League this season, the National League is incredibly more equalized. Is Bud Selig's parity mantra finally realized?

NL East:

1. Braves

Never bet against Atlanta until you lose the bet. Fielding a squad largely of young players, the Braves should still win the division on the backs of their youth movement, the "brothers" Jones, and their uncanny front office and coaching staff. They'll miss Mazzone, and hopefully Hudson figures out what's wrong with him (it better not be the shoulder). They've lowered payroll consistently the last few years, but their relative roster depth will help them this year more than it ever has, not to mention that every season they consistently best the Mets head-to-head. If you look at blown saves last season (KOLBBBBB), and the absurd rash of injuries, it's hard not to imagine the Braves being a better team this season than last.

2. Mets

With all the flurry of moves Omar Minaya made this offseason (including an essentially one-sided romance with Boston over Ramirez) the Mets became one of the "it" teams of the offseason. While their lineup is certainly bolstered (David Wright should NOT be hitting fifth), the Mets pitching will ultimately doom them. Pedro's durability is a big question, and beyond him the rotation is extremely thin. The bullpen in comparison is average, and while Wagner is a welcome improvement over Looper, the Mets pitching staff won't be consistent enough to carry them over a full season. Too much hinges on aged arms. Also, can someone please tell Randolph to hit Reyes 8th? Thank you.

3. Phillies

Philadelphia, like the Mets, lacks the pitching depth that keeps a roster afloat over 162 games. They have some intriguing bats on their squad (Abreu, Utley, Howard and Burrell are all excellent), but Brett Myers is not an ace pitcher. Ryan Madson should probbly be in relief on this team too, I'd even consider handing him the closing job over Tom Gordon. I feel like the Phillies' window closed about two seasons ago, and they need to build a credible rotation to supplement some of the excellent hitters on their squad.

4. Marlins

All that talk about 100+ losses was an exaggeration. The Marlins 1) have some incredibly gifted prospects 2) have Miguel Cabrera 3) have Dontrelle Willis. Expect them to play spoiler this season and be in title contention in another 3 years or so.

5. Nationals

Last year was a fluke. Get this team an owner and a rudder.

NL Central:

1. Cardinals

People say this is a weaker team than last year, and, well they're probably right. However, Scott Rolen did miss the balance of the season, and early looks show him hale and hearty. No one else in the NL can field 3-4-5 hitters on par with St. Louis, and their pitching staff is very deep and retooled in all the right ways. You give St. Louis two leadoff hitters who get .370+ OBPs, and Pujols wins the Triple Crown. Eh, he could win it anyway.

2. Cubs

Chicago really needs a bullpen, if only so that Dusty Baker stops running his starters into the ground. If Wood and Prior come back from their ailments, this team begins to look almost as intimidating as they did a few years ago. Their bullpen is still a mess waiting to happen, and like the last couple of years it's going to be a serious sore spot for this team. Serious wild card contender.

3. Brewers

The NL Central is tight as always, and decent arguments could be made for anyone but Pittsburgh to win the division. But this is the year the Brewers go over .500 and finally emerge as an NL force. They have some great young players under development who are finally being handed the wheel. The Brewers season however will come down to Sheets, if he regains his should've-been-Cy-Young-over-Clemens form, we may be talking postseason. If not, the Brewers will still be a thorn in the National League's side and this squad is only getting better.

4. Astros

If Clemens returns and is back to his "old" self, then the Astros might make another serious run. The feeling here though is that if he comes back, it will be to whoever can pay him the most, and I don't think Houston has the capability to match Yankee/Red Sox/Mets dollars at this point. Houston has some absolutely spectacular players (Lidge, Oswalt, Berkman, Ensberg) and I love the Astro bullpen in general, but this team lacks the depth to survive until October. It's unfortunate to see injuries wracking what's left of Jeff Bagwell, but Craig Biggio is still putting up strong numbers year-in and year-out.

5. Pirates

They seem to have a plan put together. Keep Jason Bay happy at all costs and keep developing those pitchers.

6. Reds

Remember when Ken Griffey Jr. traded himself to the Reds and it looked like the glory days were back? The Reds are in for a long season, here's hoping Adam Dunn and company pick up some hobbies to maintain their sanity. The lineup is actually one of the more gifted in the National League, but the pitching staff is maybe the worst in baseball.

NL West:

1. Giants

The NL West is so equally awful you could essentially take the team names out of a hat and you'd be just as skilled at picking a winner as anyone else. I'll take the Giants because of their improved rotation, and in the best interests of chaos Barry Bonds will have a healthy and controversial season. When he plays, the Giants are a completely different team than when he doesn't.

2. Padres

Jake Peavy gets almost no respect around the majors. Some day he will. The Padres have some good pieces and could win the division, but they're just as likely not to. Will Hoffman be worth the investment health-wise?

3. Diamondbacks

Arizona is a team in transition while they undergo a management and team-philosophy overhaul. Expect the national commentators to be yukking-it-up about their young talent more and more as the year goes on. Again, this is another division contender, but an unlikely one.

4. Dodgers

The Dodgers came out of nowhere to sign Furcal and they also largely undid the changes Moneyballer DePodesta did in his incredibly short stint as GM. Will it pan out this season? Possibly. If Gagne returns from his latest surgery even close to what he used to be, this team looks well anchored from a pitching perspective. They're going to be even more offensively challenged than the last two seasons, and all New England eyes will be tuned in to see if Nomar ever regains his old stroke and health. That's a recurring theme, the Dodgers seem to have division-caliber pieces but they're injured all the time. I picked them to win the West last year, so I'm probably going to be wrong about them again this year.

5. Rockies

There's nothing I could really say besides read John's article on what ails the Rockies.


NL MVP: Pujols. The best. I don't really see anyone close unless Derek Lee gets even better, Helton hits .400, or Cabrera takes the Marlins to the playoffs. Bonds could probably hit 74 home runs and still not win MVP at this point.

NL Cy Young: Peavy/Oswalt/Sheets. Zambrano?

Wild Card: Miracle $105 Million Mets! The Cubs and Phillies might be close, and I'd love to see the Brewers capture it over their more expensive brethren.


There really isn't anything crazy that could happen in the National League that would surprise me. Unless the Rockies, Nationals, Pirates or Reds make the postseason. How close is Bonds going to be to Aaron at the end of September???

It's that time of year again. The laptops are open, the baseball enyclopedias are thumbed through, ESPN Insider accounts are renewed. Opening Day '06! And what does that mean for baseball fans everywhere? Predicting the outcomes of 2,430 games before they occur!

Here are my American League predictions for 2006. There are excellent races in all three divisions and it should be a very exciting year for everyone outside of Kansas City, Tampa, and Baltimore. I'll get to the Parity National League later this week.

AL East:

1. Red Sox

The Red Sox worked very proactively in the offseason despite alleged chaos at the top of their administrative ladder. They refused to cripple their payroll by letting go Damon, and dramatically overhauled their two biggest sore spots last season: lineup age and the bullpen. That said, will it be enough to win the division?

I really like the Coco Crisp trade (that is until Marte is an All-Star and Crisp is on the Yankees in 3-6 years), and the Sox got younger at third, catcher and the outfield too. Loretta (health-permitting) is a very solid 2B and if Lowell finds his stroke and head he won't make the loss of Mueller seem quite as horrible (although they'll miss the latter all season). First base continues to disappoint, will the Sox ever replace Mo Vaughn, and they're a Manny injury away from third place. The bullpen went from arguably the worst in the AL to arguably the second-best (Cleveland/Oakland), Red Sox fans are chomping at the bit to give Hansen/Delcarmen/Papelbon regular innings, and the rotation is actually quite solid (we have four #3 and #4 pitchers and no true #5). If Keith Foulke has an epiphany, watch out. I personally think that the Sox-Yankees-Jays will be in a race for the title down to the last two weeks of the season, every divisional game will feel like the playoffs, and whichever team remains healthy or gets career years out of a few guys will claim the title. What's the Red Sox's ace in the hole? They have the most energetic and creative front office this side of Beanetown.

2. Yankees

Do the Yankees possibly have their greatest lineup within the last 10, 20, 30 years? Yes. Do they have a hall of fame pitcher or two? Yes. Are they locks? Hell no, and the recent annointment of '06 World Series champions by the likes of Stark and Gammons is quite puzzling.

No amount of guts or derring-do is going to hide the fact that the Yankees are 1) Old at the starting pitching position 2) Thin at the pitching position. While true that the free agent market did not particularly tremble with starting depth (how dare Tim Hudson and Ben Sheets sign extensions!), the Yankees still did nothing to address their Achilles' heel. The odds of the Small, Wang and Chacon repeating last year's luck-a-thon is quite low based on their abilities (see John's Yankee column, it's quite illustrative). While the Yankees did add Johnny "mo' money mo' problems" Damon, their lineup already finished with nearly 900 runs the previous year. I suspect they'll end up around the same point next season, perhaps even as high as 915 runs. Damon is certainly a huge upgrade over Cano/Womack at the top of the order, but the end of the Yankee lineup continues to decline. Their 'pen has new faces (Farnsworth is an able pitcher), but I expect a wash at this position by the end of the year. The Yankees could mash their way to the top of the incredibly competitive AL East, but they could pitch/injure themselves into third in a hurry, too. Basically, you don't spend $200 million on your payroll and come away with two 40-year-olds and three (+Wright/Pavano makes five)crappy pitchers. If Rivera ever gets hurt things may unravel in the Bronx in a hurry.

3. Blue Jays

B.J. Ryan is a pretty good reliever, but overpaid. A.J. Burnett is a decent starter, but more overpaid. However, that's the cost of respectability and many trendy pre-season Division/Wild Card picks by the media.

The Blue Jays are a very good team. I can't emphasize that enough. They suffered not one but TWO crippling injuries during '05 and still probably should've at least finished ahead of the Red Sox, if not gone farther. I'm not really sure if they vastly improved themselves with their acquisitions, but if Halladay and Wells have a healthy season for a change (not to mention the health woes of Burnett and Lilly) then the Red Sox and Yankees could be in a for a rude awakening. Again, I seriously doubt we'll know who wins the AL East until we're well into September, and while the Jays may not be quite as startling as their post-signings buzz indicated, they are more than prepared for the season. Is it possible to have three 90 win teams in the AL East in one season?

4. Devil Rays

The Devil Rays are still bad, but they aren't Devil Rays bad. They have a plethora of young players transitioning to the majors, hopefully they'll get the bulk of the work rather than the Dan Micelis on the roster. People have said for the last three years that the Devil Rays are improved and "for real," and while I simply think there aren't enough AL wins to go around to give them much more than 70 wins, they are an improved squad. Hand the ball to your young players, and let them and their young manager form a work ethic and a uniform system. Expect Tampa to be the giant killer that probably decides who wins the AL East more than the contending teams will. If they find an ace pretty soon we might be looking at a very challenging squad in a few years. Expect another barrage of Aubrey Huff trade rumors starting in, oh, the third week of the season and onward.

5. Orioles

Horrible team. The main reason to watch Baltimore this season is to see if Tejada has really aged and fallen off as sharply as some pundits asserted. Maybe Mazzone works some wonders with the pitching staff, but Cabrera and Bedard are not young versions of Glavine and Smoltz, I'm sorry. Expect to see Baltimore in fifth for quite some time to come if their owner doesn't drastically rethink his franchise's relevancy. Hopefully they hand the big innings to Chris Ray as he appears to be one of their few young players ready to shoulder a major load.

AL Central:

1. Indians

This is one of the most fun teams to watch in baseball right now and I've had my eye on them since the day they sent away Colon et. al. They are incredibly gifted on the field and in their lineup. I <3 size="4">2. White Sox

The Chicago White Sox are currently the most overrated team in modern baseball history. They did everything they could to lose the division last season, and made the playoffs because of three factors: 1) Their absurdly spectacular record in one-run games (they were 9-0 against the Indians in such situations alone!) 2) The unheard of durability of their top four starters, who averaged 222 innings, or 6.8 innings per start 3) Incredible good fortune in keeping players off the disabled list.

This year the Chicago bullpen will undoubtedly be busier, and their bullpen depth or durability is questionable, especially since Bobby Jenks is beginning to show why he maybe never caught on with a major league club until last season. While the White Sox did a credible job reinforcing their squad and didn't stand pat (but someone please get McCarthy in the rotation), any sort of injury to their top four starters might have tremendous rippling effects on the roster. All the innings pitched last season and into the playoffs may catch up on a couple arms, too. Offensively speaking the White Sox are a dizzingly inefficient team, and while I know Ozzie thinks "on-base percentage" is an expletive, their play style is going to catch up to them eventually (Scott "energy guy" Podsednik only steals at a 78% clip for example, let alone his and many other players' woeful OBP and SLG statistics). However, expect a banner year from brilliant acquisition Jim Thome, since he gets to concentrate on his hitting and his health rather than having to shoulder the leadership and public relations burdens like he did in Philadelphia and Cleveland. Ken Williams seems to have his head on straight (while I disagree with how he dismantled the Ordonez/Lee/Thomas White Sox he's certainly proactive), but teams tend to go .500 in one-run games, 'ere the fall of the White Sox this season.

3. Twins

Remember when the Twins were the sweethearts of baseball, storming out of the contraction controversy to practically bowl MLB over? The years since have been hard on the team as they've consistently been fored to say farewell to a battery of veterans, suffered an inordinate amount of bad luck, and they non-tendered a certain Papi. If Mauer and Morneau produce this year like everyone thought they would last year, good things are going down in the Metrodome. They possess the least-hyped ace in baseball not named Peavy, and Minnesota has one of the deeper rotations and bullpens in the league. This versatile staff will have to cover a lot for a rather thin lineup, especially by AL standards. If Mauer and Morneau don't mash, and Stewart doesn't remember his contract is up, it's going to be a lonely year for Torii Hunter and expect trade rumors to boil over. They're going to make a big-budget team cry many tears while they vye for a playoff spot in the waning summer sun; and I wouldn't be at all surprised if they leap Chicago this season.

4. Tigers

Detroit seems to be on a mission to acquire every aging former closer on the market. Last year they acquied Urbina and Percival, and while Oogie was sent to Philly (and now jail?), they've turned around by signing Todd Jones. Considering how much of an improvement they've made to their team after that 100-loss season a couple years back, is there a team in the league that gets discussed less? Their lineup is quite serviceable, although I can't imagine Polanco repeating last year's performance when he came close to winning the batting title in both leagues. The rotation has been "bolstered" by the addition of Kenny Rogers, but I can't make up my mind whether that move hurts the Tigers or is merely a wash. The Tigers are unfortunately in a similar position to Baltimore; they have dollars to spend but no one wants to sign, and they can't attract anyone but players who are trying to prove they can still play in the majors. If something crazy happens (the Tiger rotation becomes a powerhouse or another of the Central's Big Three is decimated with injuries) the Tigers may make some noise this summer, but likely not for long.

5. Royals

To quote a friend, "The Kansas City Royals. It's all about the name on the front." While the rest of the AL Central has dramatically improved themselves the last half dozen years, (cf: the late years of the 1990s Cleveland dynasty when they could feast upon 4 awful teams in the AL Central), KC is perpetually stuck in neutral. While I'd hate to see this franchise leave the city, the situation for improvement here seems hopeless unless the next genius GM is discovered by Royal ownership.

AL WEST:

1. Athletics

East Coast-bias aside, Oakland is probably the team to beat in the major leagues this year. Which is somewhat of a scary proposition considering Oakland has a history of making large-scale roster improvements midstream. No team is deeper 1-25, and Oakland has versatility at every position. Power hitters, defensive specialists, inning eaters, strikeout artists, etc. If Chavez and Crosby stay healthy and consistent enough to claim the mantle of stardom everyone expects, we might be looking at a team that remains scary good for at least three more years. Like every squad there are pivotal health concerns on this roster, and I'm sure old-timer baseball guys will crow about a lack of "experience" all season (weren't they in a pennant race until the last few weeks in '05?), but believe-you-me, the Athletics are for real and they're out for revenge after receiving no love from the playoff gods during the Zito-Hudson-Mulder era (slide Jeremy, damnit!). Rich Harden AL Cy Young '06? Frank Thomas reborn?

2. Angels

I was tempted to pick a different team second in the West, but I'm a sucker for that Angel bullpen. While the Orange County Los Angeles of Anaheim California Angels have a competitive pitching staff, their lineup continues its steady decay and they're likely to have a rather anemic offense all season. It's too bad the Yankees didn't seal the deal when Guerrero was a free agent, if only for Vlad's sake. Did he know he was leaving an awfully weak offensive team for another awfully weak offensive team that featured quadruple the payroll? If Ervin "we won't trade Manny for him" Santana is the player the Angels think he is, and Weaver adjusts to a league that features home run hitters, then Anaheim might remain competitive. But I just don't see the depth (besides the bullpen) to see the Angels making a significant run this season.

3. Rangers

Honestly, for me spots 2-4 in the AL West is a pick 'em. I don't think a whole lot separates the Angels, Rangers and Mariners from each other. That said, I'll give the Rangers the edge over Seattle because of the effort they've put into their pitching staff in the offseason. While they lost out on Beckett, they acquired or have developed a number of decent-looking arms to supplement their offensive output. Gone (for now) are the Chan Ho Parks of the roster. But, is it just me or does their offensive lineup not seem as intimidating as it did in years past? It must have something to do with a bizarre insistence by Showalter to hit Nevin cleanup. I suppose invariably Nevin's porcelain body will shatter and the lineup can get juggled, but it just seems out of whack right now. Expect the Rangers to continue putting on a show at home, but to fade as the season drags on and the Texas sun takes its toll. They need a dome.

4. Mariners

All hail King Felix! The baseball fan Rapture has arrived in the form of barely 20-year old brilliant Felix Hernandez. But beyond the baseball equivalency of LeBron James, the Mariner roster isn't as awful as you'd expect from a last-place team. The problem is that whether you look at the lineup, bullpen or rotation, there is a significant dropoff in talent after the first few best players. Seattle has a lot of payroll issues they need to work out and they need to start better apportioning who they hire to play baseball. Seattle could be a sleeper team if certain dominoes fall their way, but I don't really expect much beyond the baseball world tuning in every 5th day to praise thine King.


Awards:
AL MVP: Eric Chavez, although I'd love to see a DH-war between Hafner and Ortiz materialize. A-Rod is a perpetual contender as well, and Thome if the White Sox continue make me tear my hair out for another season.

AL Cy Young: Rich Harden. Johan Santana has an equal shot, and King Felix has such a swarm of buzz behind him he could easily finish in the top voting. If the Blue Jays make the playoffs, expect Roy Halladay in this mix.

Wild Card: Yankees, mashing their way to a first round playoff exit. Toronto if Halladay makes 30+ starts.


The above predictions are my safer, less absurd forecast. Here's how I'd like the division races to turn out if crazy stuff shakes down in '06.

American "What the #$@% Just Happened!?" League Predictions:

East:
1. Boston
2. Toronto
3. New York Yankees
4. Tampa Bay
5. Baltimore

Central:
1. Cleveland
2. Minnesota
3. Detroit
4. Chicago White Sox
5. Kansas City

West:
1. Oakland
2. Seattle
3. Texas
4. Anaheim

I would like to welcome a new contributing author to the blog, long-time baseball fanatic and sabermetrics guru Benjamin Gritz

and

Let the 2006 baseball season begin!

The following is an argument I had with a fellow Red Sox fan Ben Gritz over the worth of Mark Bellhorn. The 4 short discussions occurred starting late in the 2004 regular season and are dated to the best of my ability. (Note: Ben would like to point out that he no longer fully endorses all of his work below.)

Mark Bellhorn, the Man Behind the Mask
By John Williams, Concerned Member of Red Sox Nation (September, 2004)

Anecdotal memory seems to suggest that Mark Bellhorn gets an inordinate number of hits per ball put into play (ie any ball that requires fielding). He has an undeniable knack for walking and striking out, but I am hypothesizing that Bellhorn would have a significantly lower batting average this year if not for his luck when he actually does hit the ball in play. I believe that Bellhorn’s reason for being in the lineup is for his ability to get on base, but I think he would get many less starts, and not bat 2^nd in the lineup sporting a low .200s average, which is what kind of hitter I believe he is. Looking at his statistics this year as of 9/21/04, he has had 490 official at bats and 128 hits (including 17 home runs). Subtracting out the at bats in which he has homered and the at-bats where he has struck out, it leaves 111 hits in those other 312 at bats. This is a “hit percentage” of 35.6%. Over his entire career (1507 at-bats, 362 hits, 53 homers, 500 strike-outs), he has 954 homerless and k-less at-bats and 309 hits that aren’t homers. This is a hit percentage of 32.4%. This difference in percentage is manifested in the fact that Bellhorn is batting 0.261 this year, 20 points higher than his career average of 0.241. These career numbers, though, are weighted heavily towards this year because it is only his second full-time season. Looking just at his career before this year, he has 1017 at-bats, 234 hits, 36 homers, 339 k’s. This leads to 642 homerless/kless at-bats, and 198 hits, a percentage of 30.8%.

A good comparison to make is to a hitter like Ichiro, who has the speed to beat out almost any ground ball he hits, leading to what should be a lofty hit percentage over his career. Looking at his numbers over his mlb career, he has 2672 at-bats, 905 hits, 37 homers, 240 k’s. 2395 at-bats and 868 hits. This is an average of 36.2%, quite similar to Bellhorn’s hit percentage this year, so either Bellhorn has suddenly developed ichiro-like speed, or he is indeed having a lucky season. Looking at all of the red sox hitters this year (a crude way to take into account park and schedule effects), they have had 5279 at-bats, 1487 hits, 205 homers, 1098 k’s. 3976 at-bats, 1282 hits, 32.2% hit percentage, very similar to career average.

Now let’s ask “what if.” To me, bellhorn seems slower than pujols but let us just say that pujols and bellhorn are of similar speed and thus should have a similar hit percentage. Pujols this year has a hit percentage of 29.6%. Now, giving Pujols bellhorn-like luck in his 463 k-less and homerless at-bats would lead to 165 hits in those at-bats. Adding up his totals for this year with that hit percentage would lead to 553 at-bats, 209, at batting average of 0.378. Basically he would be Barry Bonds but with less walks. How about Barry himself with Bellhorn’s luck? A batting average of 0.397, ladies and gentleman, Ted Williams has just entered the building.

My main point is that I do not think it is unreasonable that during the playoffs we should expect a hit percentage of about 32% for bellhorn. Figuring that hit-percentage for his year this year, he would be batting 0.238 (using Bellhorn’s career hit percentage not including this year, it would be a batting average of 0.226). I, for one do not want a 0.238 hitter who strikes out more often than most sluggers batting second in the Red Sox lineup in the playoffs, especially since he lacks nearly every other baseball skill (ie bunting, making contact on hit-and-runs, range in the field, reading pitches).

Counter-arguments, criticisms of methods, or pointing out of math errors would be welcome.

Mark Bellhorn, Chicks Dig Him
By Ben Gritz, sole supporter not named Epstein (September, 2004)

The biggest problem with evaluating Mark Bellhorn is the fact he simply has not had many full years of major league service. There’s a bit of a problem with the sample size in any Bellhorn projection. And once you consider that the playoffs are themselves a small sample size, predicting his future or playoff success with any objective certainty is doubly difficult. Here are his lines for the only two seasons in which he’s had significant service-time:

2002 – Chicago Cubs

2004 – Boston Red Sox (projected on ESPN.com)

Some of his numbers are consistent and many are not. AVG and OBP however are eerily similar, which would indicate to me that Bellhorn performs better (or “luckier”) if he has more ABs, although a third full-year would be useful. Now, John charges that Bellhorn is a much lower batting-average hitter than the bare stats indicate. Even if we pretend that his career average of 0.240 is his batting average for this season, the difference is only that of 11.28 hits; which is roughly an extra hit every dozen or so games. And even if we take a “worse-case” scenario where we drop his average to his career number prior to this season (which John cited as 0.226), the number of actual hits lost is still only 18.672, or an extra hit every week. Considering the strength, and more importantly, the consistency of his OBP (career 0.354) I still am willing to trade away his possible “lucky hitting” in favor of getting to first and beyond.

The bottom line is that due to sampling restrictions it’s hard to demonstrate whether Bellhorn is a useful long-term everyday player. He’s probably not. But, let’s look at how he’s done this year as contrasted to two other groups of players: second basemen and #2 hitters. This I think better illustrates his value to the Sox this year (as well as his place in the lineup) than looking at a relatively small sampling of hit percentages.

Here are his ranks amongst MLB second basemen in a number of important offensive categories as of games started on 9/26 (according to qualified 2B on ESPN.com).

tied for 3^rd in Runs, 13^th in Hits, 4^th in Doubles, 5^th in Homers, 3^rd in RBIs, 1^st in Walks, 16^th in AVG, 3^rd in OBP, 4^th in OPS, 4^th in Runs Created, 3^rd in Runs Created/27 Outs, 1^st in Secondary Average (looking at bases gained independent of AVG [formula: (TB - H + BB + SB - CS)/AB], 6th in Extra Base Hits

Bellhorn ranks in the middle of the league or higher in every significant offensive statistic among second basemen. And if we ignore hits and AVG (two categories paid less attention to by good ole Moneyball guys) Bellhorn looks like just about the best 2B in the league whose name doesn’t end with Loretta. I’m particularly impressed by his doubles, homers, walks and OBP/OPS. Obviously strikeouts are a serious problem not shown here; although interestingly he’s still in the middle of the 2B pack when it comes to BB/Ks despite all the punchouts. But between the stats I just listed I would say his offense drowns out his strikeouts and average.

What about defense!? Now, I don’t care much about defense (my stance on the Nomar trade is sufficient evidence for that), but let’s take a gander at El Marko. Bellhorn has 11 errors at second, fewer than illustrious offensive 2B with names like Soriano, Boone, Belliard, Womack, and Hudson. The only significantly good offensive 2B with better error numbers (Kent, Loretta, etc.) are within 4 errors or less of Bellhorn. Of course errors aren’t hugely indicative beyond immediate fielder-competency, and to his discredit Bellhorn’s positional fielding percentage is near the bottom of the league and his double plays/games started ratio is 0.531; which isn’t that great league-wide but comparable to Jeff Kent’s score of 0.538. His zone rating however is 3^rd best in the league. Again, not a great defensive player but a competent fielder who drowns his defense with offense.

Now, for the coup de grâce. Let’s look at how he does contrasted against other #2 hitters on good teams. What I’m going to do is grab every “regular” second hitter (on ESPN’s lineup page of PA leaders at every spot in the order) for every team within 6 games of a playoff spot. If another hitter is within 40 PA I’ll include him too, as well for Beltran. Our nominees are…

Derek Jeter, Mark “He Hate Me” Bellhorn, Christian Guzman / Jacque Jones, Eric Byrnes / Mark McLemore, Chone Figgins / Darin Erstad, Hank Blalock, Marcus Giles, Edgar Renteria, Cesar Izturis, Michael Tucker / JT Snow, Mark Loretta, Corey Patterson, Adam Everett / Carlos Beltran, Placido Polanco

Since we’re looking at production from the hitter position, I’m going to average any numbers from the teams with two guys sharing that hitting spot ([Figgins+Erstad] / 2 for example). OBVIOUSLY, Bellhorn strikes out a ton (in fact only Adam Dunn waves his bat at air more), so that’s a knock against him. But let’s look at some other statistically important areas, and I’ll even still throw in Ks for you. I’m going to grab AB, Runs, Doubles, Homers, RBIs, Ks, GIDPs, AVG, OBP, OPS, RC, RC27 as our categories. Additionally ESPN has included the OPS of the hitter with the most PAs in the 2-hole, so I’ll include that where applicable. Here is my box score:

	AB	Runs	Doubles	Homers	RBI	K	GIDP	AVG	OBP	OPS	RC	RC27	#2 OPS
Jeter	627	107	41	23	76	95	19	0.289	0.350	0.817	101.3	5.63	0.795
Bellhorn	505	90	36	17	80	169	8	0.261	0.372	0.815	88.1	6.18	0.822
(Guzman+Jones)/2	559	82	30	8	45	62	15	0.277	0.311	0.699	64.7	3.98	X
	546	69	22	24	80	115	12	0.256	0.316	0.748	71.5	4.48	X
Minnesota	552.5	75.5	26	16	62.5	88.5	13.5	0.267	0.314	0.724	68.1	4.23	X
(Byrnes+McLemore)/2	541	87	37	20	73	104	11	0.288	0.352	0.831	92.5	6.21	X
	246	29	14	2	21	32	4	0.252	0.360	0.693	32	4.48	X
Oakland	393.5	58	25.5	11	47	68	7.5	0.270	0.356	0.762	62.25	5.345	X
(Figgins+Erstad)/2	550	77	21	5	58	91	6	0.289	0.345	0.753	80.4	5.14	X
	471	75	28	7	65	66	9	0.299	0.346	0.752	67.2	4.3	X
Anaheim	510.5	76	24.5	6	61.5	78.5	7.5	0.294	0.346	0.753	73.8	4.72	X
Blalock	595	102	37	32	109	141	13	0.274	0.355	0.884	105.6	6.27	0.862
Giles	358	59	22	7	43	67	6	0.307	0.377	0.804	61.4	6.18	0.818
Renteria	562	82	36	10	71	73	14	0.290	0.330	0.737	73.9	4.54	0.735
Izturis	646	87	30	4	59	70	6	0.293	0.332	0.718	85.7	4.76	0.721
(Tucker+Snow)/2	445	76	21	13	59	100	5	0.258	0.356	0.776	71	5.51	X
	329	59	30	11	58	57	5	0.328	0.433	0.959	76.4	8.89	X
San Francisco	387	67.5	25.5	12	58.5	78.5	5	0.293	0.395	0.868	73.7	7.2	X
Loretta	600	107	47	16	75	44	10	0.340	0.395	0.900	118.9	7.5	0.893
Polanco	478	69	20	16	48	38	13	0.291	0.338	0.771	68.8	5.04	0.77
Corey Patterson	603	89	32	24	70	160	7	0.272	0.325	0.786	90.8	5.32	0.713
(Everett+Beltran)/2	384	65	15	8	31	56	4	0.273	0.317	0.703	50.3	4.38	X
	313	68	16	23	53	53	4	0.259	0.371	0.939	72.3	8.06	X
Houston	348.5	66.5	15.5	15.5	42	54.5	4	0.266	0.344	0.821	61.3	6.22	X

I'll analyze it for you. Here are Bellhorn's "ranks" out of 14th:
AB - 9th, Runs – 4th, Doubles – tied 4th, HR – 4th, RBI – tied 2nd, K – 14th, GIDP – 4^th(fewest GIDPs), AVG – 14th, OBP – 4th, OPS – 7th, RC – 6th, RC27 – tied 6th, #2 OPS – 3^rd

There are a few interesting things to pick out of here in Bellhorn’s favor. He’s not the only high strikeout guy hitting second as both Corey Patterson and Blalock whiff frequently (Patterson only 9 fewer Ks than Bellhorn). His offensive numbers seem to be at the mid-upper echelon of #2 hitters for all the “good” teams. Considering he’s in the bottom quarter of at-bats for all the players sampled, I think the fact that he’s easily able to keep pace in many of the categories is quite impressive. Here are the numbers Bellhorn would theoretically amass if he had as many chances hitting as say, Jeter, who has an almost identical OPS:

	AB	Runs	Doubles	Homers	RBI	K	GIDP	AVG	OBP	OPS	RC	RC27
Bellhorn	505	90	36	17	80	169	8	0.261	0.372	0.815	88.1	6.18
Jeter's numbers	627	107	41	23	76	95	19	0.289	0.350	0.817	101.3	5.63
"per At Bat modifier"	X	0.17822	0.07129	0.03366	0.15842	0.33465	0.01584	X	X	X	X	X
w/ Jeter ABs	627	111.74	44.70	21.10	99.33	209.83	9.93	X	X	X	X	X

The percentage-related stats (AVG, OBP, etc.) theoretically wouldn’t change, and I’ve spent too much time on this already to bother recalculating Runs Created. Presuming the projection I used isn’t flawed, if Bellhorn had Jeter’s at-bats he would lead or be next best among the league’s #2 hitters in Runs, Doubles, RBIs, and of course, punchouts and walks. It is likely that his OBP/OPS gets a bump as well, and his HR are near the top.

In conclusion, an overall statistical analysis of Bellhorn’s production this year would lead me to conclude that he’s one of the league’s best hitters in the two-hole. Peter Gammons stating that Marky Mark is the “league’s best situational hitter” (on Baseball Tonight), something which I don’t have the time or patience to statistically explore, enhances this conclusion. His adequacy in the field (he’s either really good or highly mediocre depending on the stat selected) is more than made up for by his offensive production, which is good both as a number two hitter and which are great for a second baseman this year. Perhaps best of all is Bellhorn’s salary: $490,000. Is he a long-term solution at second base? Probably not for the Red Sox. Would I prefer to see Bill Mueller at second and the Greek God of Walks hitting in Bellhorn’s spot instead? Of course. But given the current necessity to pack the 5-7 slots with as much offense as possible, Mueller’s balky knees, Pokey’s miniscule bat, and Bellhorn’s incredulous offensive production; it is my opinion that there is no greater positional bargain in the league this season than Mark Bellhorn, and he deserves to start there for the remainder of the season.

Apologia Bellhornica
by Ben Gritz (July 26th, 2005)

This analysis got interrupted by a random trip to the Kells and the Model, but let's see if it remains coherent all the way through...

It's been demanded of me by other baseball fans that once again I must defend my monstrous creation, Mark "whiffs at whiffle ball" Bellhorn. He strikes out almost 40% of the time, and his average is beginning to hover near the Mendoza Line. My god, the horror! The abominable spectacle! The insult to o jogo bonito!

but hey, let's look at some numbers.

this is what Mark Bellhorn did last year, when I (rather soundly I think) concluded that Bellhorn was one of the three best 2B last year, and easily the best for your money:

2004
AB R H 2B HR RBI SB BB K AVG OBP SLG
523 93 138 37 17 82 6 88 177 .264 .373 .444

the on-base children, the on-base!!

anyway, he's had a more rough time this season hitting ninth as opposed to second. This is his line before he went down with that wrist-injury a couple weeks ago:

2005
AB R H 2B HR RBI SB BB K AVG OBP SLG
283 41 61 20 7 28 3 49 109 .216 .328 .360

and did you know that he has an ugly face??

since this line is an incomplete sample, a good way to look at things is to sort of prorate out his numbers. What I do is project what his numbers this year would look like if he had last year's at-bats. AVG OBP and SLG would stay the same in theory because they're percentage stats to begin with. Anyway, this is what FutureHorn would look like with 2004 ABs and 2005 production:

The Not-So Distant Future:
AB R H 2B HR RBI SB BB K AVG OBP SLG
523 76 113 37 13 52 6 91 201 .216 .328 .360

what is most sickening is that his strikeout rate has jumped up alarmingly this season, if you thought he struck out most of the time last year he's much worse this year at this point. But, there are some other things I'd like to point out.

In terms of runs, he's on pace to score a lot more for us than Orlando Cabrera would be projected to had he been on our team all season with Mark's AB total (75.77 vs 56.88), and at over half the salary to boot. Steals are the same, RBIs are down but he is hitting 9th, and slugging is off.

If you look at his power numbers (the ones I really care about), what is amazing is that despite his "struggles" he's on-pace to smack as many doubles as he did last year, and his home run pace is almost the same (which I think considering he hit almost half his homer total in the last month was bound to improve even more anyway). His walk numbers are also slightly above last-year's pace, which is a very encouraging sign considering his struggles. More importantly than that, he's on-pace for 91 walks despite hitting ninth for the team, despite that everyone knows to throw him strikes and when he doesn't have Manny Ortez hitting behind him.

So other than the Ks (and honestly I'd rather he got strikeouts than ground outs) the real problem, the one people probably notice the most since it's flashed more than once every game, is his batting average. I agree, 0.216 looks really awful. But how bad is it? Right now he has 61 hits in 283 ABs. What's a good batting average that people like? 0.275? If you wanted that, Bellhorn would have needed to get 78 hits on the season, which is 17 more than he has now. If you distribute it over the season, not counting the games since he got hurt, it's basically ONE extra hit a week, 1.06/wk to be exact. And since even _I_ don't consider him a .275 hitter, he'd only have needed 9 extra hits on the year to be hitting at a decent 0.250 clip. Considering how many hard liners he was hitting right at fielders earlier in the season (which renowned Bellhorn-hater Johnny J even noticed) I don't think an average of .250 or more is beyond question.

The only thing that makes me even wince at Bellhorn (besides watching him in the box), is that his OBP is only .328, although it is higher than 12 _team_ averages. But considering how low his batting average is, it makes sense, because if he got 9 more luck hits than his OBP would be in the mid-0.360s. And personally I think he had been playing better defense than last year until about the last two weeks, around when his injury was a problem also.

Anyway, while the Red Sox feel that he needs to get a freshen his mental and physical approach to hitting, partly why they put him on the DL, I think a lot of what ails Bellhorn is just what happens to lots of hitters, luck. And luck tends to even itself out over the course of a season, so unless this Graffanino guy we traded for ends up taking over the 2B job, I think hatred of Bellhorn is not quite as merited as the statistics indicate.

Two Points: A. Bellhorn is not a good hitter, and B. Who cares?
by John Williams (July 27th, 2005)

Generally, to anyone who feels that Gritz must defend the fact that Mark Bellhorn is our number 9 hitting second baseman, I would challenge you to suggest some alternatives, because even though he sucks a good amount, it doesn't matter because there aren't better alternatives in our system and he's just the 9 hitter, and he plays his position well enough to not be the biggest problem for the Red Sox.

Now, Ben's email and my boredom has led me to continue the argument that started during last season. Ben says in his recent email "this is what Mark Bellhorn did last year, when I (rather soundly I think) concluded that Bellhorn was one of the three best 2B last year, and easily the best for your money:" Now it's true Ben did accurately conclude this. And why shouldn't he have? .373 OBP, .444 SLG from a second baseman in the AL last year was great, and even better for a guy not making much money. Most people who know anything about baseball could easily look at those numbers and say he was one of the best at his position, there's really nothing to argue about his production last year. A .373 OBP and .444 SLG is good, and good for the future, if you are likely to maintain it. The problem is Mark Bellhorn is not likely to consistently put up those kinds of numbers, taking into account more important trends..

Bellhorn's average last year was .264, which is perfectly acceptable for a #2 hitter given his OBP. A large part of OBP is AVG though, and a player does not completely control his ability to bat for AVG. The argument last year that I proposed was not my own, but one that has been extensively used by baseball analysts: the fact that of balls put in play (not counting home runs), most hitters will see around the same percent fall in as base hits. The batter's ability to affect this percentage mainly is a product of their speed, or their ability to beat out infield hits. There are other factors, but the main point is that hitters are most likely to maintain a hit percentage close to their career average, which is also close to the average of all MLB position players. The statistical product that baseball players are most able to control is in fact their AVG subtracted from their OBP. This number will stay very constant for baseball players from year to year throughout individual careers. Bellhorn, due to his undeniable ability to walk a lot, posts OBP-AVG of .100 to .110 most years, a very good number for most players. I was most concerned last year with the fact that Bellhorn was going to bat 2nd for us in the playoffs, and was most likely going to have a hit percentage close to his career number, and thus bat close to .225 or whatever I concluded, and thus have an OBP in the low .300s, which I did not think would help us in the postseason. I thought it made much more sense to bat a player more likely to have a higher OBP batting 2nd. For anyone who watched the playoffs last year, they saw Bellhorn bat .191 with a .397 OBP, which is an OBP-AVG that is completely unrealistic to maintain over any significant period of time. His postseason performance showed more the randomness of small statistical samples in baseball than his ability. I agree that he was productive over the postseason, but I would have rather had a player who was more likely to be productive in there taking up the 2nd most at-bats for us. Or I could pointlessly argue that if you take away his home run off the foul pole and home run in Yankee stadium that cleared Matsui's glove by a few inches then he would have not been productive. The point isn't that he got a few luck hits or didn't, it's that you need to look at the likely mean production of players and put the best in the most important spots. That was the gist of me last year concluding (rather soundly I think) that Bellhorn was not likely to continue his rate of production.

To do the math again for last year, Bellhorn's hit percentage was about 35%, compared to his previous career rate or 31%, which is a little above the average rate for MLB, but pretty much what you would expect from a player playing in the kinds of parks he has over his career (big outfields in Oakland and Colorado, and good AVG parks in Denver and Boston). Now in 2005, Bellhorn is batting .216, with a .328 OBP, with a 31% hit percentage. This is precisely the kind of year I would expect for him on average year after year. His OBP-AVG is still right in line with his career numbers, as this is a very consistent stat usually, but his AVG is so low because he strikes out much more than a normal player would, so he is not a very productive player, or one you would want to bat 2nd in an order. His numbers are better than some players, like the horrible offensive player Cabrera, or Christian Guzman, but they're not very good. Gritz proposed that if you add 9 extra hits on the year to his numbers then they don't look as bad. Sure, of course they look better. Add hits to any player and their average rises dramatically.
But it's really not that dramatic, there's not much difference between a .275 hitter and a .300 hitter in one particular year in terms of numbers of hits, but over a career it is significant, it's actually 1 hit per two weeks, so really Bellhorn is pretty significantly down in terms of average. A .275 hitter over a career is most likely to bat near .275 in any particular year, and a guy who will end up with a career average near .230 will likely bat near .230 in any particular year. Some years a few lucky hits will get it up near .260, a few years the balls won't fall in and it will be near .200. The "luck" Gritz talked about evening out over a season is already even for Mark, so unless he's just got a pocket full of lucky charms I wouldn't bet on his average climbing.

My second point is, so what that Bellhorn sucks compared to an all-star player, or a player really worth of what he's making. His .330 OBP doesn't do anything to hurt the Red Sox, provided that he continues to bat in the 9th hole, and he should continue to slug well enough to be a regular 2nd baseman in MLB. Alex Cora is a brutally bad hitter, and Graffanino is not better than Bellhorn, so there's no one out there that is suddenly going to make it apparent that Bellhorn should be replaced at 2nd. (Also it's not really apparent why Bellhorn should replace Graffanino when he comes off the DL). So I don't really care anymore that Bellhorn isn't that good. I would like them to pick up a better option in the offseason, as I wanted last offseason, but as long as we are solid at other positions it's not a big deal. What is a big deal is the batting of Renteria and Millar, and the horrible pitching of the bullpen. Oh yeah, also the bad managing of the pitching staff by Francona.